The article discusses the potential benefits and drawbacks of a ceasefire for Russia and Ukraine in various domains, including land, air, and sea. The experts interviewed agree that a ceasefire would provide some relief to both sides but have different opinions on which side would benefit more.
In terms of land operations, a ceasefire could be beneficial for Ukraine as it would allow them to regroup and reorganize their forces without Russian pressure. However, Russia might also see the ceasefire as an opportunity to rest and recharge its military before resuming its attacks.
Regarding air operations, the experts believe that enforcing a ceasefire for air assets is achievable but restricting or enforcing the use of drones is difficult due to their covert nature. Ukraine’s drone campaign has significantly driven up the costs of aggression for Russia, making it a challenging task for them to achieve their objectives without taking significant losses.
In the Black Sea, a ceasefire would give Russia some breathing room as Ukraine’s successful targeting of Russian warships with drones and missiles pushed them out of large parts of the sea. However, experts agree that overall, the ceasefire would not bring any significant change in the Black Sea.
The article concludes by stating that while a ceasefire might provide some relief to both sides, it is uncertain which side would benefit more. The experts emphasize that the advent of ceasefire negotiations and ceasefires will create a window of opportunity for either party to regain a more advantageous position over the other.